Drilling dialogues: conversations about drilling professionalism and the rise of the off-grid city

by Adrian Healy, Cardiff University, UK

The African Water Association Congress 2020 witnessed an increasing focus on the important role groundwater plays in urban water supplies across Africa. It was my pleasure to facilitate two lively panel debates on what are important, but often overlooked, themes in the development of groundwater resources. The first panel considered professionalism in the drilling industry whilst the second discussed the increasing number of urban households commissioning their own boreholes.

Callist
Callist Tindimugaya and Kerstin Danert discuss drilling professionalism (Photo: A. Healy)

The drilling industry includes a range of professions and roles ranging from the owner of a drilling company, through drilling operators to hydrogeologists and drilling supervisors. The skills and experience required can vary substantially, depending on the hydrogeology involved and the nature of the boreholes being drilled. What does not vary are the negative impacts poor drilling professionalism can have, on borehole functionality. This results in losses to those who commission boreholes and, potentially, adverse implications for groundwater quality. Across Africa there is also a shift in who is commissioning boreholes. What was once the preserve of governments, firms and donor bodies is now increasingly witnessing direct action by households themselves.

Although, there are examples of good practice across the African continent, panellists recognised that there is are problems with professionalism. This can be due to a lack of experience of the drillers and supervisors, as well pressures to reduce costs. All too often experience is gained only through what can be gleaned ‘on-the-job’ leading to skills-decay across the profession over time. The privatisation of the drilling industry has exacerbated the situation as there are few incentives to encourage investments in training, and limited places where training occurs. Where the ground is easy to penetrate and water is relatively shallow, manual drilling techniques can be used. This means that skills gap becomes more acute as competition by low-cost drillers erodes the potential value of investments in training and skills development.

Panellists argued that a professional drilling industry requires strong regulation by government. Drilling companies should be licensed and boreholes should be assessed for the quality of construction. Competition amongst drilling companies should be based on minimum standards and not reward cost-cutting and poor employment conditions. Government can also support the provision of training facilities.

In Uganda, experienced drillers now provide the benefit of their knowledge to a new generation of professionals, which builds on the legacy of past investments in training (e.g. http://www.rural-water-supply.net/en/resources/details/876). A wider challenge is raising awareness of the skills and expertise required to successfully access groundwater through boreholes amongst government officials and the wider public. This highlights the importance of a broader debate on the theme of groundwater and urban water supplies.

The critical role played by the wider public was also discussed by the second panel in the context of the remarkable rise in the proportion of urban households commissioning their own boreholes in many African countries. Although official figures are hard to find, both the panellists and the audience recognised this to be a rising trend across many cities in Africa. Rapid rates of urbanisation have left many with no access to public piped water supplies, or with only erratic and unpredictable supplies. In these circumstances, households source their own water supplies. For many households, groundwater forms an accessible, convenient and reliable source of water, even in countries where officially this is not permitted.

Panellists felt that the implications of this rising trend of urban self-supply are not yet clear. There are social and economic benefits for those who are able to access a reliable source of water, but with potential costs for those who are excluded. Debates on the potential costs of lost revenue to water utilities were inconclusive, as households often act because they are not being reliably supplied by a utility. Where there is a proliferation of borehole development then the potential impacts to the groundwater resource were acknowledged to be substantive. However, little is known of the quality of borehole construction or overall abstraction rates at present. Panellists indicated that anecdotal evidence points to a lack of awareness amongst urban populations of the importance of good groundwater management and highlighted that, when this is combined with poor professionalism in the drilling industry, there are risks for the resource. An emerging concern is the number of abandoned boreholes, which tend to be left unsealed, associated with urban self-supply and poor drilling professionalism.

Chikondi
Chikondi Shaba speaks about urban water self-supply (photo: A. Healy)

The panel discussion served to highlight the importance of this crucial topic, but recognised that a lack of robust data limits the opportunities for informed debate. In the absence of data, panellists argued that the rise of off-grid access to groundwater imperilled the stewardship of the groundwater resource on which many cities now relied. Returning to the theme of the first panel, panellists stressed how education, communication and engagement with the wider public was as important for good groundwater stewardship as technical skills and strategies.

Our thanks to Skat Foundation, the Ugandan Ministry of Water and Environment, the Ugandan Drilling Contractors Association and UK Research and Innovation for supporting this session. We thank each of the participants: Callist Tindimugaya, Kerstin Danert, Michael Ale, Jenny Grönwall, Moshood Tijani; Chikondi Shaba and Moustapha Diene.

Adrian Healy researches urban water resilience in sub-Saharan Africa. He is based at Cardiff University in the UK. He can be contacted at Healya2@cardiff.ac.uk

Groundwater Science meets Policy at AfWA Congress

Day 2 of the AfWA Congress in Kampala, and the UPGro-convened stream of groundwater sessions got underway. First up was  session focusing on the AMCOW Pan-African Groundwater Program (APAGroP), with an opening by AMCOW Executive Secretary, Dr Canisius Kanangire, followed by a panel, featuring Tim Sumner from DFID

This was followed by two further sessions with lively presentations and Q&A on UPGro research from GroFutures and T-GroUP. Tomorrow, further sessions will include presentations from UPGro researchers and other close groundwater partners, including BGR.  These few days have been a culmination of many years work to bring UPGro researchers close to others working on African groundwater and to policy makers at the continental and national levels.

Afterwards, Isaiah Esipisu caught up with Dr Paul Orengoh who explained the aims and progress of APAGRoP:

(Photos; Isaiah Esipisu/Kirsty Upton)

Groundwater could be the solution to contaminated Kampala slum water crisis

by Isaiah Esipisu

After a recent study discovered traces of dangerous viruses including cancer causing pathogens in shallow groundwater in Kampala slums, residents of Makerere 2 Zone C can finally breathe a sigh of relief as further studies indicate that deeper groundwater in their area could be safe for drinking.

In collaboration with a community based organisation known as MAK H2O Project, scientists from IHE Delft Institute for Water Education together with their counterparts from Makerere University have been working with communities to find out the best way of managing their groundwater in a sustainable manner.

“As a short term measure, we have been encouraging community members to boil the water from slum springs before drinking,” said Brian Lutaaya, the Chair – MAK H2O Project.

Most of the water springs in Makerere 2 Zone C are just a few meters from pit latrines, a clear indication that the water, which appears to be sparkling clear, is likely contaminated with fecal matter. The water is fetched from an open earth surface. This makes it susceptible to all manners of waste contamination brought around by wind, rainfall runoff water and even malicious individuals.

“We are fully aware of the dangers involved, but we have no alternative source of water for drinking and for domestic use,” Edith Kansiime, one of the area residents said during a field visit by UPGro delegation to the 2020 Africa Water Association (AfWA) International Congress.

Taps in most parts of the slum went dry some years ago. The only available alternative is to buy mineral water from the shops, which is too costly for most of the slum dwellers.

As a result, the surface water has exposed them to several disease causing pathogens, some which are life threatening.

A recent study by IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in collaboration with scientists from universities in Uganda and Tanzania discovered traces of 25 different harmful viruses in surface water in the slums of Kampala and Arusha.

The study, whose findings were presented at the Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) in Vienna, Austria, found that most groundwater in the two slums contained traces of herpes viruses, poxviruses, and papilloma-virus. The latter could be one of the causes of different types of cancers in the region.

Cancer is one of the lead killer diseases in the East African region, claiming about 100,000 lives every year.

According to Lutaaya, the condition of spring water in Bwaise in Kampala, where the study was conducted is not different from the situation in lower Makerere slums.

“To our knowledge, these viruses have never been found in groundwater before on such a large scale, perhaps because there has never been an in-depth analysis,” said Dr Jan Willem Foppen, one of the researchers.

To support the communities, the scientists have been conducting experiments to understand the nature and safety of groundwater in these slums.

In lower Makerere slum for example, the research scientists through the UKaid funded UPGro programme, in a project known as T-GroUP, the scientists have sunk two boreholes, one with a shallow depth of just three metres, and another with a depth of 25 metres.

The researchers have been monitoring the water quality in both boreholes for a number of months, and the early indication is that the deeper borehole has much safer water compared to the three metre shallow borehole.

“We have not concluded this study, but there is an indication that deeper groundwater is likely going to be the solution for thousands of residents in this slum,” said Dr Foppen.

Through the T-GroUP, the scientists have been experimenting with practical transition groundwater management strategies for the urban poor in Sub Saharan Africa. They employ the Transition Management theory to find radically new and collaborative ways of using and managing urban groundwater.

Live Now: #AfWAGroundwater2020

photo: Dr Kerstin Danert facilitating this morning’s opening session of the UPGro Study Tour, Kampala, from @amcowafrica
We are really excited that today, in Kampala, is the kick-off a week of activities to promote, show and discuss the opportunities and challenges of using groundwater for rural and urban water supply, and for environmental and economic sustainability. This is part of the African Minister’s Council on Water (AMCOW) new Pan-African Groundwater Program, which was launched in Nairobi in October last year, in partnership with IWMI, GRAN (Groundwater for Resilience in Africa Network), UPGro (Unlocking the Potential of Groundwater for the Poor), GRIPP, BGR and support from the Africa Groundwater Network and the Sustainable Groundwater Development Theme of RWSN.

The aim of these coordinated activities is to build a strong and lasting connection between researchers, policy-makers and implementers, not just in Uganda, but across Africa. If you are any of those, then we hope to create opportunities for you to get involved over the coming months and years.

For live updates follow the #AfWAGroundwater2020 on Twitter and follow

What’s happening and where:

Thursday 20 Feb: UPGro Study Tour – Day 1 (closed event)

  • Learning with UPGro – delegates meet and brief
  • Group A: Learning from the adaptation of Transition Management approach in Bwaise Community, Kampala
  • Group B Learning from the adaptation of Transition Management approach in Bwaise community, Makerere Community, Kampala

Friday 21 Feb: UPGro Study Tour – Day 2 (closed event)

  • Group C: Rural Water Supply Functionality: beyond the numbers, Luwero District
  • Group D: Unlocking the Potential of Groundwater through Resource Assessment, Management and Regulation, Ministry of Water and Environment Headquarters, Luzira, Kampala
  • Closing event – sharing of experiences, debriefing and take-away messages

Saturday 22 Feb: AMCOW APAGroP Working Group Meeting (closed event)

AIM:  Building on the progress made at the launch of APAGroP in Nairobi in October 2019, the aim of this one-day meeting is for APAGroP to be taken forward and the APAGroP Working Groups to be operationalised, with a programme of activities for the next 12 months.

OBJECTIVES

  1. Consolidate and build on the momentum set in Nairobi
  2. Strengthen groundwater networks
  3. Key short-term priorities and deliverables for APAGroP set out and agreed
  4. “Action Groups” under each Working Group established
  5. Draft Action Plans for each Action Group developed, with a designated Champion to lead the group, and ways of collaborating over the next 12 months set out
  6. Milestones for 8th Africa Water Week and the 9th World Water Forum 2021 and other key events identified and agreed

Sunday 23rd Feb: AMCOW Groundwater Policy Dialogue (closed meeting)

AIM:  The African Ministers’ Council on Water (AMCOW) launched its Pan-African Groundwater Program (APAGroP) with a major meeting in Nairobi October 2019. The programme, with its crucial target being that groundwater is better represented in the continent’s major strategic programs around water, intends to improve the policy and practice of groundwater in Africa for better lives and livelihoods. The initiative is intended to contribute to the achievement of the continent’s commitment to the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goal 6 – Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.

The purpose of the Groundwater Policy Dialogue is to:

  1. Inform AMCOW TAC Members of background and forward-looking dimensions of the APAGroP, including a roadmap through AWW8 in Windhoek, November 2020, to the WWF9 in Dakar, March 2021;
  2. Share experiences and messages between AMCOW TAC and groundwater networks;
  3. Bridge the gap between science, policy and practice; and
  4. Build a cadre of groundwater ambassadors at the political representation level among AMCOW Member States.

Monday – Thursday: African Water Association (AfWA) Congress, Kampala (open to delegates)

  • High-level Ministerial Dialogue
  • Keynote: Dr Kerstin Danert
  • Groundwater exhibition stand, convened by UPGro (I will be there, to answer questions)
  • Groundwater sessions through the week:
Topic/Title Convenors Chair
1.     Groundwater Governance: The AMCOW Pan-African Groundwater Program as a Catalyst for Intra- and Cross-country Groundwater ‘Resource-to-Tap’ Management AMCOW/GRAN/BGS/IWMI

(Dr Karen Villholth)

Dr Kerstin Danert

Programme Coordination Group Chair – UPGro

Skat Foundation, Switzerland

2.     Where does your water come from? 5 ways to increase water security and inclusive access in cities, towns and villages UPGro

(Prof. Richard Taylor)

 

Dr. Simeon Dulo

University of Nairobi, Kenya

 

3.     Insights in the adaptation of transition management in order to increase sustainable urban groundwater management UPGro
(Prof. Jan Willem Foppen – T-GroUP/ IHE Delft)
Dr Robinah Kulabako

Makerere University, Uganda

4.     Off Grid: the opportunities and challenges of safe and sustainable water points UPGro

(Prof. Alan MacDonald)

Co chairs

Alan MacDonald, British Geological Survey, UK  & Chikondi Shaba, Chancellor’s College Malawi

5.     Manage, recharge, protect – Groundwater for resilient urban water supply BGR/IWA GM SG

(Michael Eicholz)

Ramon Brentführer

Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Germany

6.     Drilling dialogues: a conversation about professionalism, groundwater mapping and off-grid cities Cardiff University, Skat Foundation, Uganda Drilling Contractors Association, Ministry of Water and Environment

(Adrian Healy)

Dr Adrian Healy

UKRI Future Leader Fellow

Cardiff University, UK

7.     Unlocking Groundwater: from data to knowledge. What’s needed to manage groundwater for society, economy and environment AMCOW/GRAN/BGS/IWMI

(Kirsty Upton)

 

Paul Orengoh,

Director of Programmes

African Ministers Council on Water (AMCOW), Nigeria

 

 

 

Dodowa residents prone to diseases from contaminated wells – Research

by Gifty Amofa/Christabella Arkvi, Ghana News Agency 

More than 12,000 people are likely to contract water-borne diseases if they continue to use water from their contaminated dug wells in Dodowa, in the Greater Accra Region, according to a research report.

Samples of water were tested for rotavirus, bacteriological quality and others, with about 27 percent of the dug wells testing positive for Rotavirus in the Zongo, Wedokum, Obom and Apperkon communities, where the research was conducted.

Professor Sampson Oduro-Kwarteng, an Associate Professor of the Department of Civil Engineering, of the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), who shared the findings, said the groundwater, located near toilet facilities and refuse dumps had been contaminated with human and animal excreta.

Continue reading Dodowa residents prone to diseases from contaminated wells – Research

The climate is changing – we need groundwater more than ever

UPGro Ambassador, Dr Callist Tindimugaya, attended last month’s COP meeting in Madrid – the United Nations global negotiation meeting to try an agree ways forward to tackle climate change.

He was attending as part of the Government of Uganda delegation to bring forward opportunities and challenges – in particular the key role of groundwater as a resource that can help buffer against some of the effects of shifting rainfall patterns across Eastern Africa.

In this interview with Isaiah Esipisu, he explains why African groundwater needs to be on the lips of the climate negotiators.

AMCOW launches its Pan-African Groundwater Program

re-posted from GRIPP

AMCOW, the intergovernmental apex body on water in Africa, was established in 2002 with its secretariat in Abuja, Nigeria, to provide political oversight and promote cooperation, security, social and economic development, and poverty eradication among member states.

The aim is to achieve this through the effective management of the continent’s water resources, and the provision of water supply and sanitation services.In recognition of the importance of groundwater to the continent’s sustainable development, a continent-wide strategic groundwater initiative was part of the resolution of AMCOW’s Sixth Ordinary Session in Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo, in May 2007.

While initial ambitions evolved around formalizing the initiative as an African Groundwater Commission, subsequent attempts and further analysis carried out at several meetings, including the Technical Advisory Meeting and Africa Groundwater Stakeholders Workshop in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in 2017, and the 7th Africa Water Week in Libreville, Gabon, in 2018, resulted in the initiative being invigorated as the strategic APAGroP.

IMfd1Nga
Dr. Karen Villholth, Leader of IWMI’s Research Group on Resilient and Sustainable Groundwater, emphasized the strength in partnerships in bringing forward the agenda of APAGroP (photo: AMCOW).

APAGroP strongly aligns with the AMCOW strategy for the period 2018-2030, guiding its activities and the continent towards achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as the Africa Water Vision 2025 and the AfricaSan Ngor Commitments for sanitation and hygiene.

Dr. Canisius Kanangire, Executive Secretary, AMCOW, expressed his appreciation and satisfaction with the present momentum, and support towards consolidating and further rolling out the Pan-African Groundwater Program (APAGroP).

The Experts’ and Stakeholders’ workshop provided background presentations of APAGroP as well as fruitful deliberation on the state of knowledge and management of groundwater in the African continent.

Presentations were made by AMCOW, international and African research institutions, Regional Economic Communities:

  • Economic Community of Central African States [ECCAS],
  • Economic Community of West African States [ECOWAS],
  • Intergovernmental Authority on Development [IGAD],
  • Southern African Development Community [SADC]),

international and intergovernmental organizations:

  •  Center for Environment and Development for the Arab Region and Europe [CEDARE],
  • Observatoire du Sahara et du Sahel [OSS]), as well as key international river basin organizations
  • African Network of Basin Organizations [ANBO]) and financing institutions.

The workshop was supported by AMCOW; a recent Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) networking grant to the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and the British Geological Survey (BGS); and the successful research program – Unlocking the Potential of Groundwater for the Poor (UPGro),

It helped crystalize a way forward in further harnessing and harvesting best knowledge and practice around groundwater to support sustainable development in the continent. GRIPP was strongly represented at the workshop through the following partners:

  • Africa Groundwater Network (AGW-Net);
  • Association of Water Well Drilling Rig Owners and Practitioners (AWDROP);
  • BGS; Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Germany;
  • International Association of Hydrogeologists (IAH);
  • International Groundwater Resources Assessment Centre (IGRAC);
  • IWMI;
  • Skat Consulting Ltd. (Skat);
  • The World Bank (WB); and
  • United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization – International Hydrological Programme (UNESCO-IHP).

These partners expressed strong interest in further supporting the rollout of APAGroP.

Photo: AMCOW

Wikipedia Edit-a-thon helps spread groundwater knowledge

(photo: Brighid O’Dochartaigh, BGS @beodoch)

Yesterday, delegates at the IAH 2019 Congress, in Malaga, took part in an official Wikipedia Edit-a-thon, led by BGS. This is an event where people get together to edit Wikipedia – often focused on a specific topic. It is an opportunity for people with similar interests to get together to improve the content of Wikipedia, while learning how to edit the online encyclopaedia.

Why an edit-a-thon for the Africa Groundwater Atlas?

There was very limited content in Wikipedia related to groundwater or hydrogeology in Africa, The aim of this edit-a-thon is to create new “Groundwater in…” pages for every country in Africa, based on the content of the Africa Groundwater Atlas, but summarised and edited for a more general audience.

Through this, we hope to make groundwater information more accessible to a wider audience and increase the awareness of groundwater issues in Africa.

Want to get involved, but not in Malaga? Worry not:

Create your own Wikipedia account

You’ll need a Wikipedia account in order to start editing. You can create your account before the edit-a-thon to speed things up – Create a Wikipedia Account.

You’ll set up a Username that will be visible to everyone viewing any pages that you edit. You don’t have to use your real name if you don’t want to – but you can if you want. Note that accounts (and usernames) are for individuals and not organisations.

Getting started with Wikipedia editing

In the edit-a-thon we’ll lead you through everything you need to know about editing Wikipedia pages! But if you want to get started learning how in advance, try the Wikipedia Adventure, where you can learn to edit Wikpedia in about an hour.

Want to know more or need help?

Drop us an email at AfricaGWAtlas@bgs.ac.uk with the info above and we can tell you more about helping remotely!

After the event we will upload all the resources you need to get involved and create new Wikipedia pages on groundwater in Africa in your own time to a Google Drive Africa Groundwater Atlas resource folder.

Pages created and edited yesterday:

New drafts that you can help with:

 

Hidden Crisis project presentation in the China Africa water Forum Series No. 7, at Windhoek, Namibia

By Dessie Nedaw
8 August 2019

The China Africa Water Forum is a platform for all professionals within the fields of water science and technology in Africa and China. The China Africa Water Association also referred to as CAWA, is a non-profit organization that predominantly organizes annual events. One such event was held for three days from July 22 to July 24, 2019 in Windhoek, Namibia with title “Risk Reduction through Sustainable Water Management in Developing Countries”.

The conference was the seventh of the series held under the title China Africa Water forum. The conference has been prepared in collaboration between China Africa Water Association and Namibia’s chapter of Association of Hydro-geologists and other stakeholders. 

The opening speech by Minister of public enterprise has emphasized the current fresh water supply challenge of Namibia facing and the possible solution of desalinization as the future option. The Chinese Ambassador in Namibia has emphasized on the neeed of China Africa partnership in a win-win strategy based on mutual benefits. He mentioned the similarities of challenges faced by both China and Africa and stressed some of the innovative approaches and technologies in China stressing the importance of the forum for transfer of skill and knowledge.  Nearly 25 presentation from Africa and China covering a wide range of water related topics focusing in reducing risk of water supply, management and sustainable utilization water resources, transport and diffusion of water pollutants and exploration and development of groundwater has been addressed during the three days conference.

The Hidden Crisis project work was presented at the conference within the groundwater exploration and development theme – highlighting the work of the project to apply a tiered approach to assess functionality of handpumped borehole supplies in terms of different levels of performance. The findings have shown this approach to be helpful to unpack national statistics and develop more nuanced understanding of functionality within the country. 

The experience has given opportunity to highlight the project and also given good opportunity to share ideas from other professionals, particularly Chinese water experts. Ethiopia has formally requested to be the next organizer of China Africa water forum in the meeting.

Figure: Dessie Nedaw

Different perspectives on ways to make a living from groundwater, in Tanzania and Ethiopia

Lessons from the GroFutures Multi-stakeholder Workshops in the Great Ruaha Basin, Tanzania, and Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia

by John Thompson, Imogen Bellwood-Howard, Gebrehaweria, Gebregziabher, Mohammad Shamsudduha, Richard Taylor, Devotha Kilave, Andrew Tarimo and         Japhet Kashaigili

Identifying and characterising groundwater development pathways

More than four years ago, an international group of collaborators embarked on a comparative study of ‘Groundwater Futures in Sub-Saharan Africa’ (GroFutures – http://grofutures.org/) in three ‘basin observatories’, the Great Ruaha in Tanzania, the Upper Awash in Ethiopia, and the Iullummeden in Niger and Nigeria. One key aim of the project was to identify a range of existing, emerging and potential ‘groundwater development pathways’ in each basin.

This work linked interdisciplinary, multi-scale research with a deliberative, multi-stakeholder engagement process in order to inform groundwater planning processes in the basins. Attempts were made to co-locate physical infrastructure to assess groundwater recharge and storage (i.e. piezometer arrays, soil-moisture probes, rain gauges) with key stakeholder communities where the social science was conducted (i.e. household surveys, rapid rural appraisals, well inventories) (Figure 1). The ultimate aim of GroFutures is to generate new evidence and policy relevant insights to open up new pathways towards more sustainable and ‘pro-poor’ groundwater futures in the wider region.

Figure 1. Characterising Groundwater Development Pathway

Slide1

Six groundwater development pathways by the GroFutures Social Science Team during the course of the research. These ‘stylised’ pathways are representative of broader trends found in the three basin observatories. Each has been characterised in terms of its socio-economic functions; physical dimensions; stage of development; technology; ownership, management and governance arrangements; legal aspects of land and water access; alignment with national policy; and – importantly – its implications for poor water users (a key consideration of the project).

To analyse the longer-term sustainability of groundwater in the basins, the GroFutures Physical Science Team attempted to ‘stress test’ or quantify the impacts of groundwater development pathways, together with the impacts of climate and land-use change, on groundwater recharge and storage in each basin. Employing a groundwater flow model using MODFLOW-2005, run via using the open-source, GIS-based interface (QGIS) that has been developed as part of the newly available FREEWAT platform under a HORIZON 2020 project, the team assessed the hydraulic impacts of pumping under a range of boundary conditions, including variable recharge, over different time scales. These impacts were represented in a set of maps for selected sub-basins in which our social science and physical science teams collected detailed primary hydrogeological and socio-technical data and also drew on relevant secondary information.

A simplified sketch was also prepared to provide a visual representation of each pathway. A key assumption is that these pathways may well co-exist over time and meet the needs of different users. However, there may be cases where there is serious competition and trade-offs between them, leading to positive and negative impacts for different water users and for the environment.

The six pathways and the summary of the modelling ‘stress testing’ for the Great Ruaha and Upper Awash Basins are outlined below. The maps below show the ‘baseline’ groundwater level for each of these, without any pumping. For each pathway, a possible arrangement of wells is suggested, which extract specified volumes at specified depths. The pumping in each pathway gives a new groundwater level, lower than the baseline, projected five years into the future. How much lower depends on the amount of pumping. The new groundwater level for each pathway, can be compared to this baseline. The diagrams and maps presented here come from the pathways described for the Upper Awash. The first five pathways affect the shallow aquifer, while the large-scale commercial agriculture pathway influences the deeper Upper Basaltic Aquifer.

Pathway 1: Small-scale, self-supply for multiple uses

Slide2

Tanzania: Evident now in this basin

The impact of this pathway on the water table is minimal: groundwater levels fall less than 2 metres over the entire study area with a decline of less than 1 metre over half of the study area. This pumping is not expected to impact the area covered by wetlands or their operation.

Ethiopia: Evident now in this basin

The impact of this pathway on the water table is minimal: groundwater levels fall less than 2 metres over the entire study area with a decline of less than 1 metre over ~70% of the study area. This pumping from shallow wells (<80 m below ground level) is not expected to impact baseflow to streams.

Pathway 2: Small-scale private supply for smallholder intensified agriculture

Slide3

Tanzania:  Not evident yet though promoted in policy

The impact of this pathway on the water table is moderate: groundwater levels decline up to 4 metres over approximately 40% of the study area with declines of less than 3 metres in 60% of the study area. This pumping may locally impact the yields and operation of shallow wells; the impact on wetland extent or operation is not expected to be substantial.

Ethiopia: Evident now in this basin

The impact of this pathway on the water table is moderate: groundwater levels decline 2 – 3 metres over approximately 25% of the study area with declines of less than 2 metres in 65% of the study area. This pumping from shallow wells (<80 m below ground level) may locally impact yields and operation of shallow wells; the impact on baseflow to streams is not expected to be substantial.

Pathway 3: Medium-scale municipal supply for multiple uses

Slide4

Tanzania: Evident now in this basin

The impact of this pathway on the water table is moderate: groundwater levels decline less than 3 metres over the entire study with declines of less than 2 metres over half of the study area. This pumping may locally impact the yields and operation of shallow wells; the impact on wetland extent or operation is expected to be minimal.

Ethiopia: Evident now in this basin

The impact of this pathway on the water table is moderate: groundwater levels decline less than 3 metres over the entire study with declines of less than 2 metres over 70% of the study area. This pumping from shallow wells (<80 m below ground level) may locally impact the yields and operation of shallow wells; the impact on baseflow to streams is expected to be minimal.

Pathway 4: Medium-scale private supply for commercial agriculture

Slide5

 Tanzania: Not yet evident in this basin

The impact of this pathway on the water table is moderate: groundwater levels fall up to 4 metres in approximately 40% of the study area with declines of less than 3 metres in 60% of the study area. This pumping may locally impact the yields and operation of some shallow wells; the impact on wetland extent or operation is expected to be minimal.

Ethiopia: Evident now in this basin

The impact of this pathway on the water table is substantial: groundwater levels decline between three and five metres over approximately 28% of the study area with declines of less than 3 metres in 60% of the study area. This pumping from shallow wells (<80 m below ground level) is expected to impact yields and operation of some shallow wells as well as baseflow to streams.

Pathway 5: Medium-scale private supply for livestock husbandry

Slide6

Tanzania: Not yet evident in this basin

The impact of this pathway on the water table is moderate: groundwater levels fall up to 4 metres in approximately 40% of the study area with declines of less than 3 metres in 60% of the study area. This pumping may locally impact the yields and operation of some shallow wells; the impact on wetland extent or operation is expected to be minimal.

Ethiopia: Not yet evident in this basin

The impact of this pathway on the water table is substantial: groundwater levels decline between 3 and 5 metres over approximately 28% of the study area with declines of less than 3 metres in 60% of the study area. This pumping from shallow wells (<80 m below ground level) is expected to impact locally the yields and operation of some shallow wells as well as baseflow to streams.

Pathway 6: Large-scale private supply for commercial agriculture

Slide7

 Tanzania: Not evident yet

The impact of this pathway on the water table is substantial: groundwater levels fall 4 to 6 metres in approximately half of the study area. This intensive pumping of groundwater would impact the yields and operation of shallow wells; intensive pumping would also reduce the supply of water to wetlands impacting the extent and functioning of wetlands and related ecosystem services.

Ethiopia: Evident now in this basin

The impact of this pathway on the water table is very substantial: groundwater levels decline by more than 5 metres over approximately 27% of the study area with declines of 3 – 5 metres over 55% of the study area. This intensive, dry-season pumping of groundwater from deep wells (180 to 300 m below ground level) would impact the yields and operation of deep wells.

 Analysing the Stress-Tested Pathways

In June and July 2019, colleagues from Institute of Development Studies (IDS) and the ESRC STEPS Centre, the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and University College London (UCL), in collaboration with partners at Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) and Addis Ababa University (AAU), hosted two multi-stakeholder workshops at which the groundwater development pathways were assessed using Multicriteria Mapping (MCM) (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Participants at the GroFutures Multi-stakeholder Workshops in Tanzania and Ethiopia

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MCM is multi-stage interview and engagement approach which helps stakeholders to explain their views and priorities in a structured and systematic way without necessarily identifying a single ‘best’ decision but to highlight underlying criteria that influence people’s perceptions of different options or pathways. The GroFutures team used MCM software developed by the University of Sussex and STEPS Centre with stakeholders representing a range of actor groups from local to basin to national levels with knowledge and interest in groundwater development and management.

In both workshops, the GroFutures team trained a group of Research Assistants recruited through SUA and AAU to serve as MCM facilitators in the workshops. The invited participants represented a range of stakeholder groups – e.g. local domestic water users; local irrigators; district agricultural and water officials; NGO representatives; national agriculture and water officials; private sector representatives; livestock sector representatives (Tanzania). This allowed the team to cluster them into specific interest groups. Each group was assigned one facilitator to assist them in reviewing the six ‘stress-tested’ pathways and analysing them against a core set of criteria provided by the GroFutures Team – i.e. equitable access; environmental sustainability; and ease of operation and maintenance – as well as their own specific criteria.

The groups spent the afternoon of the first day of the workshop defining their criteria and then used the morning of the second day to scoring the pathways against the core criteria and their own additions. For each criterion and pathway, an ‘optimistic’ and ‘pessimistic’ score was given on a scale of 0 (low) to 100 (high). The facilitators encouraged the participants to explain why they used each criterion and scored each pathway as they did.

This information was captured in the MCM software so that we had a clear description of the decision-making behind the scoring. After they completed the scoring, participants were invited to weight their criteria from most to least important, to add further insights into their preferences.

After all participants have done this, the researchers can combine the data from each participant and analyse the whole data set to understand similarities and differences between groups.

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