“A participatory methodology for future scenario analysis of sub-national water and sanitation access: case study of Kisumu, Kenya” by Heather Price, Lorna. G. Okotto, Joseph Okotto-Okotto, Steve Pedley & Jim Wright: https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2018.1500343 from the UPGro Catalyst Project “Sustaining groundwater safety in peri-urban areas”
- Many cities in Sub-Saharan Africa, and other low and middle income countries, are growing fast. Expansion of water supply systems to meet that growing demand is challenging, particularly in the context of climate change and competing water uses, such as agriculture.
- Scenario planning, with geographical information systems, is an essential tool to help government bodies and utilities plan investments in urban and peri-urban water supply infrastructure and services, but examples in developing countries remain rare and have generally been rural.
- The case study, Kisumu, is a city in Western Kenya near the shores of Lake Victoria. The Kisumu Water and Sewerage Company (KIWASCO) has responsibility across the city.
- 12 key informants with particular insights into the water and sanitation sector, social and economic planning and human population dynamics were identified and included in two sessions: (1) Background information and future trajectories of population growth; (2) computer software called “International Futures” was used to explore different population scenarios, which formed the basis of discussions on water and sanitation planning for the city in three groups.
- Through the participatory planning in separate groups it was possible to draw out where areas of consensus and uncertainty about how the city, and its demand for water and sanitation will change. One area of common agreement was that groundwater and on-site sanitation will remain an important part of the mix until at least 2030, which implies and longer-term need for interventions like household filters, chlorine dispensers at well heads, education or land tenure reforms to enable sewerage installation.
- Future research should focus on a broader range of scenarios than just extending current trends in population change, for example: ethnic conflict, social fragmentation, and rapid, Chinese-led infrastructure development.
Related UPGro work on urban groundwater or groundwater for urban areas:
- UPGro Consortium project (live)- T-GroUP:
- UPGro Catalyst Project (complete): Mapping groundwater quality degradation beneath growing rural towns in Sub-Saharan Africa
- UPGro Catalyst Project (complete): ARIGA: Assessing Risk of Investment in Groundwater Resources
- Urban Groundwater Dependency in Tropical Africa – a scoping study of pro-poor implications (March 2017): https://upgro.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/urban-groundwater-report_0015.pdf
Picture: Map of household water access by 2030 for sub-locations in and neighbouring Kisumu, Kenya, assuming continuity of current trends and policies, as envisaged by break-out groups 1, 2 and 3.